Piklu Mallick

Research Projects & Publications

My research focuses on the mathematical modeling, control, and inference of infectious disease dynamics in networked populations, and on the analysis of real-world complex networks such as transportation systems.

Selected Publications

• Mechanics of pandemics
  Seba Contreras, Philipp Dönges, Laura Müller, Piklu Mallick, Sydney Paltra, Ulrik Hvid, Robyn J. N. Kettlitz, and others, Viola Priesemann
  eClinicalMedicine, 98, 104101, 2026
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  Summary: This paper compiles ten fundamental mechanisms, curated by a multidisciplinary team spanning public health, medicine, epidemiology, political science, mathematics, physics, and psychology, that shape how pandemics unfold and can be controlled regardless of the pathogen. The work brings together established principles, such as the exponential growth of early outbreaks and the quadratic effect of reducing group sizes, alongside social mechanisms like trust, solidarity, and risk perception, to provide a framework for pandemic preparedness and policy.
• Testing paradox may explain increased observed prevalence of bacterial STIs among MSM on HIV PrEP: A modeling study
  Laura Müller, Piklu Mallick, Antonio B. Marín-Carballo, Philipp Dönges, Robyn J. N. Kettlitz, Carolina J. Klett-Tammen, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Viola Priesemann, Seba Contreras
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 122(44), e2524944122, 2025
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  Summary: This study investigates the testing paradox where increased screening in PrEP programs can lead to higher observed STI rates even if true prevalence is declining. By modeling the interplay between risk behavior, PrEP uptake, and screening intensity, the authors demonstrate that surveillance artifacts may explain the apparent rise in bacterial STIs among PrEP users, reconciling conflicting epidemiological evidence.
• Stability and bifurcations of a minimal model for the effect of PrEP-related risk compensation in epidemics of sexually transmitted infections
  Piklu Mallick, Laura Müller, Antonio B. Marín-Carballo, Philipp Dönges, Seba Contreras
  Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2025
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  Summary: This paper analyzes a minimal compartmental model to understand how risk awareness and compensation associated with PrEP influence STI dynamics. The study identifies critical thresholds and bifurcation points, specifically a transcritical bifurcation at R0=1, providing a general framework for understanding the nonlinear interactions between behavioral adaptations and disease spread in high-risk populations.
• Inferring the delayed and non-linear properties of the socio-epidemic feedback loop from COVID-19 data: A Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis
  Piklu Mallick, Jonas Dehning, Seba Contreras, Viola Priesemann
  In preparation
  
  Summary: This ongoing work uses hierarchical Bayesian analysis to infer how non-linear and time-delayed feedback between social behavior and epidemic spread shaped the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Analysis of Imposition and Periodic Relaxation of Lockdown on the Spread of COVID-19 in India through Networked SEIR Model
  Piklu Mallick, Sourav Bhowmick, Surajit Panja
  2021 Seventh Indian Control Conference (ICC), pp. 63–68, 2021
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  Summary: This paper develops a network-based SEIR model to evaluate the impact of imposing and relaxing lockdowns in various Indian states. The study demonstrates how coordinated lockdown strategies and their timely relaxation can shape the progression of a pandemic across interconnected regions, offering insights for policymaking during future outbreaks.
• Prediction of COVID-19 Infected Population for Indian States through a State Interaction Network-based SEIR Epidemic Model
  Piklu Mallick, Sourav Bhowmick, Surajit Panja
  IFAC-PapersOnLine, 55(1), 691–696, 2022
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  Summary: Using a state-level mobility network, this work adapts the SEIR epidemic model to simulate and forecast the spread of COVID-19 among Indian states. The model captures the effect of inter-state interactions, improving short-term prediction accuracy and helping understand the dynamics of spatial disease transmission.
• Analysing the Effects of Lockdown & Vaccination to Inhibit the Spread of COVID-19 in India with a Networked SUVIRD Model
  Piklu Mallick, Surajit Panja
  2022 8th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT), pp. 1–6, 2022
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  Summary: This paper introduces a networked compartmental model (SUVIRD) to analyze the combined effects of lockdown and vaccination strategies on COVID-19 spread. The results highlight the importance of synergy between vaccination rollout and sustained intervention measures in minimizing infection peaks.
• Analysis and Evolution of Airport Network of India
  Piklu Mallick, Sujoy Paul, Surajit Panja
  2022 IEEE Region 10 Conference (TENCON), pp. 1–5, 2022
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  Summary: This work analyzes the structural properties and growth of India’s airport network over time. The study reveals key patterns of connectivity and robustness, which have implications for both efficient transport planning and the containment of infectious disease spread via air travel.

Ongoing Research Projects

• Inference of Behavior: Bayesian inference and modeling of the impact of voluntary and mandatory COVID-19 restrictions on epidemic dynamics in Germany.

See more of my work on ResearchGate